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PROFESSIONAL VITAE SIRMAN A. CELAYIR PERSONAL INFORMATION 2301 Collins A1441 Nationality: American Miami Beach, FL 33139 Family: Single Tel/Fax:(305) 535-0814 E-Mail: [email protected] EDUCATION Instructor Credentials, 5 Fields California, 1984 (see Page 2) Economics, MA West Virginia University, 1971 Petroleum Engineering, MS West Virginia University, 1969 Engineering, BS West Virginia University, 1968 Mathematics & Comp. Sci., BA West Virginia University, 1967 Early Education: Max Planck Gymnasium, Trier Germany, 1959 - 1962 Sankt George Austrian Lyceum, 1954 - 1958 LANGUAGES Turkish, German PROFESSIONAL & PERSONAL EXPERIENCE
1994 - Now Author Washington, DC Nonfiction Miami Beach, FL 1986 - 1994 Software Developer AstroResearch Washington, DC 1981 - 1986 Instructor UCLA, UCSD, Navy et al. Various Fields Los Angeles, San Diego, CA 1978 - 1981 Advisor S A B I C Petrochemicals Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 1975 - 1978 Project Officer The Saudi Fund Development Projects Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 1973 - 1975 Consultant Van Scoyoc & Wiskup, Inc. Public Utility Rate Cases Washington, DC 1972 - 1973 Economist Geomet, Inc. Health Care Contracts Rockville, MD 1971 - 1972 Asst. Professor Salem College Business & Economics Salem, WV 1966 - 1971 Graduate Assistant, West Virginia University Programmer Morgantown, WV REFERENCES: Available upon request from file at WVU. Page -2 APR. 1994 - PRESENT AUTHOR MIAMI BEACH, FL In Apr. 1994, I decided to write an autobiography about us: Celayir, Diary of an Immigrant Family. The contents emphasize the various stages of our assimilation to America, a process that is shared by perhaps all immigrants, though this subject has not been discussed elaborately. I completed the three volumes late in 1996, after 675 pages. I intend to finish my personal projects at the end of 1997 and mingle with people and life again . . . JULY 1985 - JAN. 1994 SOFTWARE DEVELOPER ASTRORESEARCH, WASHINGTON, DC Having worked with computers since 1967, in 1985, I decided to start my own company and market my own software. I began with a comprehensive Investment Analysis program, compiling the material from a voluminous book, Mathematics for Finance, I had used as an instructor. In time, I added additional modules, such as Real Estate Investment and Return and a comprehensive Astronomy package. I arranged the various modules as "chained" (Compiled BASIC) subroutines operating from a common command center. The effort with astronomy gave me the impetus to study the validity of astrology. Seven years and several books and papers later, I had the most comprehensive astrology package in the world. By December 27, 1993, my software, AsterPro, had reached an enormous (16 meg) size and sold to users from 46 countries. In Jan. 1994, I decided to offer AsterPro as a shareware on my bulletin board, so that I could move on to other things. APRIL 1981 - JULY 1985 INSTRUCTOR SAN DIEGO, LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA From June to Oct. 1981, I was employed as a consultant to Stanford Research Institute (SRI) in Menlo Park, CA, which I left to pursue a freelance lifestyle. From 1982 to July 1985, I was employed as an instructor by various universities and colleges in San Diego and Los Angeles, California. On June 5, 1984, I received my official Instructor Credential (#284724, valid for life) in: 1) Computer Technology, 2) Banking and Finance, 3) Economics, 4) Mathematics, and 5) Business and Industrial Mgmt. CLASSES and SEMINARS 1) UCLA (Los Angeles): Introduction to Computers 2) UCLA/RTD (Los Angeles): Quantitative Business Methods. Seminar to Los Angeles Rapid Transit Department (RTD) managerial staff. 3) UCSD (La Jolla): Advanced Basic - under UCSD's Professional Program. 4) SDSU (San Diego): Basic I, under SDSU's Professional Program. 5) MESA COLLEGE (San Diego): Data Processing, Business Math. 6) CITY COLLEGE (San Diego): Information Processing, Computer Programming, FORTRAN, BASIC I 7) WOODBURY UNIVERSITY (Los Angeles): Introduction to Computers, Computer Logic, BASIC I, Advanced BASIC 8) US NAVY/CHAPMAN COLLEGE (San Diego): Mathematics of Finance, Corporate Finance, Elementary Statistics, and Principles of Marketing. Page-3 OCT. 1977 - JAN 1981 ADVISOR, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SABIC is a semi-autonomous organization in charge of the development of petrochemical industries in the Kingdom. The development is concentrated in the Al-Jubail and Yanbu regions. SABIC's participation in the schemes proceeds through joint venture partnerships with well-known international corporations. On technical issues, SABIC also relies on the advice and recommendations of its advisors, employed directly by SABIC. I did the analytical work and reported directly to the Director General, Mr. Ibrahim A. Salamah. Aside from attending meetings with the joint venture partners, I reported on major developments affecting the projects. There was considerable activity before the negotiations, testing, for example, the financial implications of different feed and/or product prices and marketing scenarios; formula vs. market pricing for the offtake quantities; effects of the gas wellhead tax; (manpower availability and) labor costs; the relative attractiveness of a tax holiday vs. an investment grant, and other large and small issues which are a part of such gigantic projects, some costing $3.5 Billion. 1) SABIC-EXXON, SAUDEX: Project facilities consist of a complete grass roots operation in Al-Jubail to manufacture and market LDPE. As initially envisioned, the capacity of the two-train plant would be 240,000 tpa. Total financing needs --the equity component 50/50 by SABIC/EXXON--are $916 M (1983), including $290 M (1978) for the plant on situs; the remaing for Licensing Fees, IDC, W/C, Pre-operating Expenses, Support Facilities, Contingency, and Advance Payments to the SPPC Project (below) for the Ethylene Feedstock. The start-up of the first train is scheduled for 1983--though delays are very likely. 2)SABIC-SHELL, SPPC: This huge grass roots complex, to be located in Al-Jubail, will manufacture and market Ethylene feedstock, EDC, Styrene, Ethanol, and Caustic Soda. The total financing needs are $3.33 B--as with other SABIC projects, the financing is 60% PIF; 30% Equity, and 10% Commercial Loan --including Advance Payments from SAUDEX Project (above), to be spent 1980 through 1985. 3) SABIC-DOW: The scope of the project includes a 500,000 mtpa Ethylene complex, 105,000 mtpa HDPE, 70,000 mtpa LDPE, and 300,000 mtpa Ethylene Glycol. The duration of the partnership will be 25 years. The feedstock and fuel to the complex will be provided by PETROMIN (the latter at $.35/mmbtu, 1978 basis). The total financing needs are $1.3 B, to be spent through 1985. 4) SABIC-MOBIL: The updated financing requirements for plant start-up in 1984 are $1.4 B. The complex is to be located in Yanbu and manufacture and market LDPE (likely market: 22.5% in USA; 32.5% in W.Europe; 40% in Mid-East and Africa), HDPE (16.7% in USA; 33.3% in W.Europe; 44.5% in Mid-East and Africa), and MEG (50% in USA; 15% in W.Europe; 30% in Mid-East and Africa). 5) SABIC-MITSUBISHI: As of Jun 1981, the feasibility report was being prepared through a joint effort by SABIC and MITSUBISHI. I served as the supervisor of the works in the Project Economics Volume(s). Upon request from MITSUBISHI, I was sent (twice) to Tokyo in order to train the MITSUBISHI project staff in the rules and regulations of Saudi Arabia with respect to industrial projects in the Kingdom; SABIC and PETROMIN guidelines as to project financing, and the methodology used in SABIC's computer program for project analysis. Page-4 6) SABIC-CELANESE: The proposed plant is to produce 2,100 tpd of Methanol --at 330 days/yr capacity utilization, total output is 693,000 tpa--using the ICI Low Pressure Methanol Synthesis Process. Davy Powergas is selected as the process designer; Braun as the prime contractor. The project costs of $358 M reflect savings achieved through the use of modularization. As with the other joint ventures, a significant portion of the output is designated as the offtake quantities; the quantities which Celanese has agreed to purchase from the venture according to a pre-agreed formula offtake price. 7) SABIC-MGC: This project is actually a joint venture between SABIC and a consortium of about 17 Japanese organizations--including a Government department. MGC, the Mitsubishi Gas Company, is the "spokesperson" for the consortium. The facility is expected to produce--at 1,815 tpd and 300 days of on-stream production--544,500 tpa of Methanol, using MGC's own technology. MHI, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, is selected as the engineering and construction contractor. The projected capital estimate is $263M. 8) TAIWAN FERTILIZER: My involvement in this project was indirect, though it dealt with a very significant aspect of all SABIC projects: Saudi manpower availability. The feasibility reports (all) presumed that the initial mix of management, operations, and other labor--about 40% Expatriate; 40% Saudi, and 20% TCN--would change so that, according to a pre-planned schedule, all positions would be taken over gradually by Saudi nationals. Eventually even the Saudis began to wonder where all these trained Saudi nationals would come from. The study I conducted was based upon intensive review of the Saudi Five-Year Plan--published by the Ministry of Planning--and interviews with several Government officials. It took into account the numbers of students entering the primary and secondary schools; the students enrolled in the universities (and the trainees of vocational schools) at home and abroad. The study concluded that while the needs in sales, managerial, professional, clerical, and service categories would likely be met, even under the most optimistic projections, there would be a considerable shortage of skilled workers, technicians, operatives, and other occupational categories. 1978, OPEC Headquarters, VIENNA, AUSTRIA (before I joined SABIC). In 1977, I wanted to develop an econometric model to study the impact of the 1974 OPEC oil price increase on 122 developing countries. I also thought of offering my study as a paper at an economic conference. I brought this project to the attention of my boss Dr. Mahsoon B. Jalal, the Director of the Saudi Fund. He pointed out that I could obtain such detailed data only at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna. Dr. Jalal assigned me to Vienna for a week; I completed my paper and presented it at the Western Economic Conference in Hawaii a year later. It was received very well. Page-5 FEB. 1976 - OCT. 1977 PROJECT OFFICER The Saudi Fund The Saudi Fund is a financing institution for large-scale development projects around the world, like the World Bank. The qualifying projects are selected according to the following criteria: 1) The project is technically and financially viable. 2) The project scope and type is supported by the general conditions in the particular country, and 3) The implementation does not give rise to undesirable side effects which are not properly taken into account. These elements are studied carefully by the project officers and one (or several) reports are submitted to the Board of Directors. If the project is found to be feasible, officers are asked to review bids and procurement documents, participate in the financing negotiations, prepare draft agreements, and follow-up on projects, also traveling to project sites. I participated in the following projects. 1) PORTS OF BUSAN AND MUKHA, KOREA. The project is part of Korea's Third Five-Year Development Plan, originally scheduled for 1972-1976. The two ports handled about 43% of all cargo in 1971. The proposed modernization plan is expected to meet the requirements of Korea's expanding foreign trade through 1986. The total estimated cost of $131 M is to be financed jointly by the Saudi Fund (SFD), the World Bank (IBRD), and the Government. 2) MARSAXLOKK BAY HARBOR, MALTA. The initial development scheme calls for the construction of basic facilities for a deep-water berth and a short breakwater. Plans in the longer run include a shipyard and commercial port facilities. Total cost of the initial plan is $22 M. 3) PAUTE HYDROELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT, ECUADOR. This project is a part of Ecuador's National Electrification Plan, initially scheduled for 1973-1977. It envisages the integration of the power lines in the Sierra and Costa regions into a national grid system. The total cost of $196 M is to be financed jointly with the SFD, the IBRD, and the Government. The implementation dates are 1976-1981. 4) KPONG HYDROELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT, GHANA. The project consists of a four-unit (144 Mw each) powerhouse , a spillway structure flanked by dikes, and a double-circuit 161 Kv transmission line connecting the power plant to the line between Akasombo and Volta substations. The total cost of $242 M is to be financed jointly by several international development banks. The project is to be commissioned in 1981. 5) THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT, KOREA. The project involves the construction of 195 Km of new roads, and pawing of 600 Km of existing roads in a predominantly agricultural region. The total cost of $215 M is to be financed jointly by the SFD, the IBRD, and the Government. The implementation dates are 1976-1979, as initially scheduled. 6) KONKOURE HYDROELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT, GUINEA. The feasibility report offers several alternatives to developing the hydroelectric potential of the river Konkoure in support of an aluminum smelter of economic size. The recommended scheme calls for a generating capacity of 600 Mw, and an aluminum smelter of 150,000 tons/annum capacity. The total cost is estimated at $810 Million. Page-6 7) NAMGANG AREA DEVELOPMENT, KOREA. The proposed project is part of the Third Five-Year Development Plan concentrating on agricultural modernization and improvement in the standards of living. The total cost of $86 M is to be jointly financed by the SFD, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Government. The implementation dates are 1976-1979, as originally planned. 8) SUEZ CANAL EXPANSION, EGYPT. Preliminary results favor the 48 ft and 67 ft draught depth expansion schemes. Alternative schemes include a by-pass at Port Fouad, and ways of anchoring and mooring vessels in the Great Bitter Lake. The costs vary from $483 M to $1595 M for the two favored schemes, to be financed by several development banks. The implementation dates are 1975-1981. 9) ROAD PROJECTS, GAMBIA. A joint delegation from the Abu Dhabi and SFD arrived on a fact-finding tour. The discussions with the Ministry of Economic Planning, and the Department of Public Works, covered the feasibility of upgrading the primary, secondary, and feeder roads. 10) VARIOUS PROJECTS, CAPE VERDE, ISL.. A joint delegation from Abu Dhabi and SFD discussed the feasibility of various projects on the island group. Based upon these discussions, the available data, and the conditions observed, the most promising projects were seen to be those improving the traditional and industrial fishing, and coffee production--confirmed by the United Nations staff on situs. 11) LAND DEVELOPMENT, ARAB REPUBLIC OF YEMEN. studies for land development schemes in Wadi Rima and Montane Plains were undertaken as part of British technical assistance. The studies recommend upgrading of rural roads and water supplies; establishing agricultural research centers, and a host of range land, livestock, and afforrestation projects. 12) CONSULTATIVE GROUP CONFERENCE, PARIS, FRANCE. The World Bank hosted at its headquarters in Paris a conference on the economic situation of Egypt. The conference was attended by delegations from around the world, particularly from other Arab countries. Several Ministers from Egypt were also present. As the head of the technical team from the SFD, I was asked to present a report outlining the viewpoints of the SFD, the problem areas, and possible remedies. SPECIAL ASSIGNMENT. For a period of about six months, I was in charge of a team of economists assigned with the task of preparing economic profile reports for about 100 developing countries. The reports, 5 to 10 pages in length, included the sections political and historical perspective, profile of basic economic indicators, review of the year past; future economic prospects, and relations to Saudi Arabia. The info was obtained from various international publications, classified government documents, as well as through interviews on situs. SPECIAL ASSIGNMENT. I was chosen as the editor of the Saudi Fund's Annual Reports (ii and iii) for the years 1975/76 and 1976/77 respectively. Page-7 SEP 1973 - DEC 1975 CONSULTANT Van Scoyoc & Wiskup, Inc. The firm represents the municipal and industrial customers of public utilities in regulatory proceedings. The typical case assignment proceeds as follows: 1) Preparation of a preliminary report on the rate filing to the client, outlining the proposed changes in the Rate Base and Revenue Requirements, informing the client on procedural matters, and proposing recommendations as to strategy. 2) Independent analysis of rate base and revenue requirements, including several formal requests for info to the utility and the staff of the Public Utility Commission (PUC) with jurisdiction on the case. 3) In the event of substantial disagreement with the utility's and/or PUC's cases, disputed issues are resolved off the record. 4) Prepare (and participate) for the cross examination of opposing witnesses on unresolved issues. 5) Prepare (and testify) on own testimony. 6) Pursue matters, and spontaneously interact with all the parties. I participated in the following regulatory proceedings: 1) TEXAS GAS TRANSMISSION CORP., DOCKET No.RP74-25 before the FPC in Washington, D.C. The case involved a rate increase of $28 M and reduction in gas volumes for the year beginning on Apr 1,1974, and the year thereafter. 2) WASHINGTON GAS LIGHT CO., CASE No.19375 (on 5/21/74) before the Virginia Public Service Corporation Commission (our client) in Richmond, Virginia, involving a rate increase of $40 M. The assignment included derivation of the allocation factors for the Rate Base ($326 M) and Cost of Service ($162 M) to Virginia--as the Company also serves Maryland and D.C. 3) CONSUMERS POWER CO., CASE No.U-4576 before the Michigan Public Service Commission (our client) in Lansing, Michigan, involving a $72 M rate increase. The assignment included verification of the Company's adjustments to its operating income, and the dispatching of generating equipment at least cost to the client. 4) DETROIT EDISON CO., CASE No.U-4570 (on 6/4/74) before the Michigan Public Service Commission (our client) in Lansing, Michigan, involving a $150 M rate increase. Since Detroit Edison is a pool member with Consumers Power, this case was related to the previous one. In addition, energy and capacity exchanges between the two companies (and others) were investigated. 5) SOUTHERN SERVICES, INC., DOCKET No.E-8514 before the FPC. Southern Services is a holding company of Georgia Power, Alabama Power, Mississippi Power, and Gulf Power. The assignment included review of studies and meeting minutes of committees to ascertain that the entire system is planned and operated as a single unit; not as four independent utilities. 6) TEXAS GAS TRANSMISSION CORP., DOCKET No.RP74-25 before the FPC in Feb. 1975. As a result of dwindling gas supplies, the Company claimed that it needed a higher rate of depreciation in order to recover its investment at about the same time that its gas supplies run out. 7) TEXAS GAS TRANSMISSION CORP., DOCKET No.RP75-19 before the FPC (on 9/27/74) involving a rate increase of $28 M, and further curtailment of gas volumes. 8) NEW ENGLAND POWER CO., DOCKET No.E-8641 before the FPC in Feb. 1975. The Company is an operating subsidiary of NEES which is involved in R-7, R-8, and R-9 rate proceedings. The Company witness was cross examined on the viability of the proposed return to equity of 15.7% to the Company's shareholders. Page-8 9) EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS CO., DOCKET No.RP-75-28 before the FPC on 10/1/74. In view of sudden curtailment of gas volumes from Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co., East Tennessee was forced, in turn, to curtail sales to about 60 of its customers according to the curtailment guidelines set forth by the FPC ORDER No.467-B. About two dozen customers of East Tennessee needed assurance that each would get its equitable share of the total supply. The priorities of gas usage, the definition of process gas vs. non-process gas, and the availability and technical feasibility of alternate fuels were discussed. 10) TENNESSEE GAS PIPELINE CO., DOCKET No.RP75-45 before the FPC involving the Company's gas supply situation. The assignment included examination of data on the Company operated fields located off the coast of Louisiana in order to ascertain that the deliverability estimates from these fields, owned by the parent company Tenneco, Inc., were correctly stated. 11) MICHIGAN BELL TELEPHONE CO., CASE No.U-4820, Aug. 1975. I served as the technical advisor to Mr. Hugh Anderson, the Asst. Attorney General of the State of Michigan, at the Settlement Conference about the Company's $108M rate increase. 12) NORTHEAST UTILITIES, INC., before the U.S. District Court for Connecticut. An anti-trust complaint was initiated by five municipal power systems against Northeast Utilities and its three operating companies. The plaintiffs, customers of Northeast Utilities, claimed they were being prevented from competing effectively for customers in their own service areas. 13) NORTHERN STATES POWER CO., DOCKET No.E-9148 before the FPC, Sep 1975. The assignment included investigation of the extensive computer program (of the Company's operations) as reflected in the rate filing. 14) SOUTHERN UNION GAS CO., CASE No.1198 before the New Mexico Commission. The assignment concentrated on the procedure used by the Company to allocate the "Fair Value" plant in service to six operational districts in New Mexico. 15) NEW ENGLAND ELECTRIC CO., DOCKET No.E-9140 before the FPC, Oct. 1975. The Company's "Rate of Return" witness was cross examined on the proposed 15.7% return to equity to its shareholders. 16) SIERRA PACIFIC POWER CO., DOCKET No.ER76-87 before the FPC, Nov. 1975. The assignment included examination of the Company's allocation factors for Cost of Service and Rate Base to our client, Mt. Wheeler Power Co., a wholesale customer of Sierra Pacific. Page-9 CONFERENCES CHAIRED International Atlantic Economic Conference, Freeport, Bahamas, Feb. 10-15,1980; Session: International Exchange Rates, Feb. 11. International Atlantic Economic Conference, Vienna, Austria, May 10-17,1979; Session: Protectionism, May 14. Western Economic Association Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, Jun 20-26,1978; Session: International Finance, Jun 25. Western Economic Association Conference, Los Angeles, California, Jun 20-23,1977; Session: Interest and Investment, Jun 20. WORLD BANK, Consultative Group Conference, Paris, France, May 10-12,1977; Subject: Economic Position of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Represented the Saudi views. Western Economic Association Conference, San Francisco, California, Jun 24-27,1976; Session: Public Utilities, Peak Load Pricing, Jun 27. PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS Sirman A. Celayir, "How (Apparently) the Developing World Qualified for Financial Assistance from the OPEC Countries, Years 1973-1976". International Atlantic Economic Conference, Freeport, Bahamas; Session: International Finance, Feb. 12,1980. Sirman A. Celayir and Kenneth L. Shellhammer, "The Direct Financial Impact of the 1974 OPEC Oil Price Increase on the Developing World in 1974". 1) International Atlantic Economic Conference, Vienna, Austria; Session: International Finance, May 17,1979. 2) Western Economic Association Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii; Session: Resources and Energy, Jun 24,1978. Sirman A. Celayir, "A Proposed Thesis of Rate of Return for Public Utilities". Western Economic Association Conference, San Francisco, California; Session: Industrial Organization, Jun 25,1976. Sirman A. Celayir, "The Concept of Rate of Return and the Comparability Criterion". Atlantic Economic Conference, Washington, D.C.; Session: Macro Theory, Sep 13,1975. Sirman A. Celayir, "A Pilot Study of Comparable Risk Enterprises in Rate of Return Determination for Public Utilities". Western Economic Association Conference, San Diego, California; Session: Public Utilities, Jun 28, 1975. Sirman A. Celayir, "Development of a Preliminary Design for a Linear Programming Model to be Used to Develop Least Cost Air Pollution Control Strategies". Geomet, Inc., May 1973. Sirman A. Celayir and Charles Schwerzler, "Evaluation of Hospital Productivity Trends". Report #HF-194, Geomet, Inc., Jan 1973. Page-10 PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS AIME/SPE--The Society of Petroleum Engineers, 1967-1976. AAUP--The American Association of University Professors, 1971-1976. AEA--The American Economic Association, 1972-1981. SIAM--The Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1975-1979. WEA-WFA--The Western Economic Association, 1975-1979. IAES--The International Atlantic Economic Society, 1978-1981. AWARDS 1) In 1967, I was elected to the Pi Epsilon Tau, the Petroleum Engineering Honorary and served as the Executive Vice President of the Lambda Chapter from 1968 to 1969, until my graduation. 2) Gulf Oil Corporation Research Fellowship sponsored my Master's Thesis in Petroleum Eng. in 1969: "Electrolytic Model Analysis of Inclined Fractures." OTHER PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE AUG. 1972 - SEP 1973 RESEARCH ECONOMIST Geomet, Inc. My quantitative and computer oriented background allowed me to interact with all the departments in Geomet. The contracts were predominantly sponsored by the Federal Government. My duties, specifically, required formulation the proper analytical technique (such as: cost benefit; cost effectiveness; linear programming; input/output) for the problem on hand. I contributed both on proposal and report levels. AUG. 1971 - JUL. 1972 ASST PROF OF ECONOMICS and BUSN ADMIN, Salem College Upon graduation, I joined the faculty of this private college and offered the following courses: Operations Research--evening seminar to local businessmen --Mathematics for Finance; Micro-Economics; Macro-Economics, and Consumer Economics. JAN 1966 - JUL. 1971 RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, West Virginia University Financed my graduate education through free lance programming on campus. Later I joined several research institutes as research assistant, initially, and as research associate, later. The institutes catered primarily to contracts sponsored by state and local governments.